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Vermont unemployment rate falls again to 6.4 percent

first_imgStatewide Total – All Industries estimate is seasonally adjusted independently.Note: Beginning January 2009 Vermont is publishing a seasonally adjusted Total-All Industries estimate for the   Burlington – S. Burlington MSA.Current Employment Statistics Program (CES). Produced by the Vermont Department of Labor in cooperation with the U.S Bureau of Labor Statistics. Vermont Labor Force StatisticsSeasonally Adjusted TOTAL NONFARM290,550294,650293,600-4,100-3,050-1.4%-1.0% TOTAL PRIVATE233,450237,900236,300-4,450-2,850-1.9%-1.2% GOODS PRODUCING41,85039,95044,2001,900-2,3504.8%-5.3%   MANUFACTURING30,55029,85030,950700-4002.3%-1.3%     Durable Goods21,85021,35022,100500-2502.3%-1.1%       Computer & Electrical Equipment Mfg.7,4007,5007,900-100-500-1.3%-6.3%       Fabricated Metal Products Mfg.2,3502,3502,350000.0%0.0%     Non-Durable Goods8,7008,5008,850200-1502.4%-1.7%       Food Mfg.3,9003,7503,850150504.0%1.3%   CONSTRUCTION10,5509,35012,4501,200-1,90012.8%-15.3%   MINING & LOGGING7507508000-500.0%-6.3%  SERVICE-PROVIDING248,700254,700249,400-6,000-700-2.4%-0.3%    TRADE, TRANSPORTATION AND UTILITIES53,45053,45055,0500-1,6000.0%-2.9%      Wholesale Trade9,7509,8009,700-5050-0.5%0.5%      Retail Trade35,80035,70037,200100-1,4000.3%-3.8%        Food & Beverage Stores9,7509,8509,700-10050-1.0%0.5%        General Merchandise Store2,8502,8502,70001500.0%5.6%      Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities7,9007,9508,150-50-250-0.6%-3.1%         Utilities1,7001,7001,700000.0%0.0%         Transportation & Warehousing6,2006,2506,450-50-250-0.8%-3.9%    INFORMATION5,4005,4005,5000-1000.0%-1.8%    FINANCIAL ACTIVITIES12,50012,50012,30002000.0%1.6%      Finance & Insurance9,6009,5509,350502500.5%2.7%      Real Estate, Rental & Leasing2,9002,9502,950-50-50-1.7%-1.7%    PROFESSIONAL AND BUSINESS SERVICES21,25020,95021,800300-5501.4%-2.5%      Professional, Scientific and Technical12,60012,80013,100-200-500-1.6%-3.8%      Administrative, Support and Waste8,4007,8508,2505501507.0%1.8%    EDUCATIONAL AND HEALTH SERVICES61,25060,70059,6005501,6500.9%2.8%      Educational Services13,35013,40013,650-50-300-0.4%-2.2%        College, Universities and Professional7,7507,6007,75015002.0%0.0%      Health Care and Social Assistance47,90047,30045,9506001,9501.3%4.2%        Ambulatory Health Care Services15,90015,60015,6003003001.9%1.9%        Hospitals12,95012,85012,4501005000.8%4.0%        Nursing and Residential Care Facilities6,8506,8006,8505000.7%0.0%    LEISURE AND HOSPITALITY28,50035,45028,450-6,95050-19.6%0.2%      Arts, Entertainment and Recreation3,3503,2503,300100503.1%1.5%      Accommodation and Food Services25,15032,20025,150-7,0500-21.9%0.0%         Accommodations8,65015,5008,650-6,8500-44.2%0.0%            Hotels & Motels8,50013,5007,950-5,000550-37.0%6.9%         Food Services and Drinking Places16,50016,70016,500-2000-1.2%0.0%    OTHER SERVICES9,2509,5009,400-250-150-2.6%-1.6%    GOVERNMENT57,10056,75057,300350-2000.6%-0.3%       Federal Government7,1006,8007,050300504.4%0.7%       State Government Education9,1509,3009,150-1500-1.6%0.0%       Local Government Education25,00024,75024,8002502001.0%0.8%       Other State Government8,8508,8509,2500-4000.0%-4.3%       Other Local Government7,0007,0507,050-50-50-0.7%-0.7% Change to         Apr. 2010 from    PRELIMREVISEDREVISEDCHANGES FROM% CHANGES FROMINDUSTRY BY NAICSApr-10Mar-10Apr-09Mar-10Apr-09Mar-10Apr-09 Barre-Montpelier29,70027,7002,0006.77.87.3Bennington13,20012,2009507.37.99.4Bradford4,9004,5004008.210.08.8Brattleboro24,45022,7501,7006.96.57.3Burlington-South Burlington113,700107,7506,0005.36.06.3Hartford19,85018,9509004.55.35.0Manchester11,80010,8001,0008.47.79.5Middlebury18,00016,7501,2507.08.17.4Morristown-Stowe20,25018,6001,6508.28.69.0Newport14,10012,7001,3509.711.310.9Randolph8,8008,1007008.08.68.9Rutland27,30025,1002,2008.07.79.0Springfield12,40011,3501,0508.47.59.0St. Johnsbury14,75013,6501,1007.48.39.7Swanton-Enosburg14,25013,2001,0507.28.78.7Warren-Waitsfield4,1003,9002505.64.45.9Woodstock3,4503,2502006.16.16.5Vermont Total357,250333,35023,9006.77.37.6 VERMONT LABOR FORCE AND UNEMPLOYMENTLABOR MARKET AREAS BY RESIDENCE (Not Seasonally Adjusted)April 2010 Estimates TotalNumberNumberApr-10Mar-10Apr-09AreaLabor ForceEmployedUnemployedRate (%)Rate (%)Rate (%) The annual rate of unadjusted job growth is also now at -1.0%. Though down slightly from March, the annual change has been improving over the last several months.When seasonally adjusted, April payroll jobs declined by 1,900 jobs or -0.6 percent over March. The declines were fairly widespread with losses in Construction, (-700 or -5.7%), Professional, Scientific & Technical (-300 or -2.3%) and Leisure & Hospitality, (-2,500 or -7.4%). Manufacturing added 600 jobs since March, the vast majority in Durable Goods Mfg. (+500 or 2.3%). Education & Health Services grew (+ 600 or +1.0%) and Government was up 300 jobs, due in part to hiring temporary Census workers.Employment GrowthVermont s April seasonally adjusted unemployment rate fell by two tenths of a point to 6.4 percent as a result of an increase of an estimated 600 employed and a drop of 800 in the number of those unemployed. For comparison purposes, the US seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for April was 9.9 percent, up of two tenths from March.   Private Industries239.3241.5242.5-2.2-3.2-0.9-1.3    Construction11.512.213.8-0.7-2.3-5.7-16.7    Manufacturing30.930.331.30.6-0.42.0-1.3      Durable Goods22.121.622.30.5-0.22.3-0.9      Non-Durable Goods8.88.79.00.1-0.21.1-2.2 Trade, Transportation & Utilities54.754.856.3-0.1-1.6-0.2-2.8   Retail Trade 36.636.738.2-0.1-1.6-0.3-4.2   Trans., Warehousing & Utilities8.08.08.30.0-0.30.0-3.6 Financial Activities12.612.412.40.20.21.61.6    Professional & Business Services21.621.722.1-0.1-0.5-0.5-2.3      Professional., Scientific & Technical12.612.913.1-0.3-0.8-2.3-3.8      Administrative Support & Waste8.78.58.60.20.12.41.2 Education & Health Services61.160.559.40.61.71.02.9   Private Ed. Services13.013.013.20.0-0.20.0-1.5   Health Care & Social Assistance48.147.546.20.61.91.34.1    Leisure & Hospitality 31.233.731.4-2.5-0.2-7.4-0.6      Arts, Entertainment & Recreation3.83.73.90.1-0.12.7-2.6      Accommodation & Food Services27.430.027.5-2.6-0.1-8.7-0.4 Other Services9.49.69.5-0.2-0.1-2.1-1.1  Total Government54.754.455.30.3-0.60.6-1.1     State Government17.417.217.90.2-0.51.2-2.8     Local Government30.030.130.1-0.1-0.1-0.3-0.3 Total Labor Force362,200362,400361,300-200900  Employment339,200338,600335,2006004,000  Unemployment23,00023,80026,100-800-3,100  Rate6.4%6.6%7.2%-0.2-0.8April unemployment rates for Vermont s 17 labor market areas (see chart below) ranged from 4.5 percent in Hartford to 9.7 percent in Newport. Local labor market area unemployment rates are not seasonally adjusted. For comparison, the April unadjusted unemployment rate for Vermont was 6.7 percent, down six tenths of a point from March and down nine tenths of a point from a year ago. The level of unadjusted unemployment was statistically significant from the March value.Annual Benchmark RevisionEach year in January we perform a benchmark revision of the CES (Current Employment Statistics) job counts and the LAUS (Local Areal Unemployment Statistics) employment and unemployment estimates. In the case of CES, we replace survey data with actual job counts from our Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) through the third quarter of 2009 and then we re-estimate fourth quarter 2009 jobs using this new information. Since CES job counts are part of the LAUS unemployment model, we also revise the household unemployment series for the year.This year our CES and LAUS revisions were much larger than normal, partly because of the rapidly changing economy and partly due to methodology changes imposed by the Bureau of Labor Statistics that had the impact of overestimating job loss in the fourth quarter of 2008 and the first quarter of 2009. This, in turn, had the impact of overestimating our unemployment rate for the first two quarters of 2009.As we continue to highlight, we can expect small sample states like Vermont to exhibit a higher degree of variability in month to month job estimates in the CES program. As a result of this change in methodology, caution should be used in interpreting a single month s results. CES payroll job numbers are now best understood in the context of their movement over several months as opposed to observed changes in a single month estimate.Starting in January 2010 the LAUS program unemployment estimates have included a new statistical smoothing component that should reduce unexplainable short term large increases and decreases in the state s unemployment rate.Source: Vermont Department of Labor. 5.21.2010center_img Apr-10 Mar-10 Apr-09 Mar-10 Apr-09 Mar-10 Apr-09 Total – All Industries294.0295.9297.8-1.9-3.8-0.6-1.3 Note: CES PROGRAM DATA ARE PRDUCED IN COOPERATION WITH THE U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICSESTIMATES ARE PRELIMINARY AND SUBJECT TO REVISION.  SEE ANNUAL SUMMARY FOR DETAILS Burlington-S. Burlington MSA Vermont Seasonally Adjusted Nonfarm Employment in ThousandsBY NAICSPrelim.RevisedRevisedChange From:% Change From: ESTIMATED NONFARM EMPLOYMENT IN VERMONT(not seasonally adjusted) The Vermont Department of Labor announced today that the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for April 2010 was 6.4 percent, down two tenths from the revised March rate and down eight tenths from a year ago.  The unemployment rate trends continue to point to overall improvement in the labor market said Patricia Moulton Powden, Commissioner of the Vermont Department of Labor.  Our household survey shows increasing numbers of working Vermonters and a decline in the number of unemployed. However, the jobs survey showed a decline of 1,900 jobs over the month.   We believe the jobs survey is over-estimating this decline. We may see some correction in the unemployment rate when the April numbers are finalized. This volatility in monthly numbers can be expected during periods of economic recovery. Coupled with changes in methodology on the federal level, the numbers continue to point to the need to put more weight on trends versus a single month. And in Vermont, the trends continue to be positive.Seasonal Job GrowthThe total job loss in April is larger than what we have seen over the last several years. Leisure and Hospitality was the largest contributor to the overall loss down 6,950 jobs over the month. It appears the model s estimate of jobs in this sector for earlier months may have been too strong causing the April decline to be greater than expected. However, most sectors gained jobs over the month, but not enough to off-set the loss in Leisure & Hospitality.Manufacturing posted an unexpected gain of 700 jobs; most of the gain was confined to Durable Goods Manufacturing. Construction added 1,200 jobs as warmer weather boosted payrolls. Administrative Support & Waste added 550 jobs, and was mostly attributed to seasonal influences. Health Care & Social Assistance grew by 600 jobs, with all subsectors showing growth in April. Due in part to the hiring of temporary Census workers, Federal Government added 300 jobs Note: Unemployment rate is calculated as the number of unemployed divided by total labor force and expressed as a percent.Source: Vermont Department of Labor LAUS program in cooperation with the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics  Total – All Industries108.7108.9111.2-0.2-2.5-0.2-2.2 Apr.   2010  Mar.   2010  Apr.   2009  Mar.  2010 Apr.  2009 last_img

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